When The Chips are Down

Back around 1994, I read in a science magazine article, that the computer chip was coming to it's end. The ability of manufacturing at photon width had reached it's limits, and the progress that we had experienced over the past 36 years in chip development would cease; hmmmmmm now 18 years later, I am hearing the same old song and dance, about the computer chip, only with a few twists; Moore's Law is going to come to an end, in less than 10 years, and that chips will be so easily produced at that time, they will be worth only pennies.

Seems that the predictions are at odds with themselves. So let's break it down a bit. Moore's Law first. What is it??

From the Wikipedia article: Moore's law is a rule of thumb in the history of computing hardware whereby the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).[1]

The law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore, who described the trend in his 1965 paper.[2][3][4] The paper noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958 until 1965 and predicted that the trend would continue "for at least ten years".[5] His prediction has proved to be uncannily accurate, in part because the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development.[6]


and I (Schnee Wolfe) would hazard a guess that Moore's Law is also responsible for the huge advances in other technologies, like energy production, cell phones, medicine, rocketry, and auto mobiles, almost anything you can name. The background noise of change is advancing at greater than the 5 year doubling that was predicted when I left school in 1968. Society is keeping up JUST, but for how long is anyone's guess. Our institutions are creaking, and our banking and governmental bodies are struggling to keep up. The leaders of today are creating laws and regulations for the present, based on the past, and as soon as they are set on paper, before being voted on, are obsolete. Technology has superseded them. 



They are predicting that around 2020, the ability to double the performance of the Integrated Circuit will have hit a road block. No explanation, just a flat out statement. They, being the futurologists / scientists of today. My own thoughts on this, let's wait and see. My experience has lead me to believe that in 3 years, there will be a new "break through" that someone is working on even as I write this. Break throughs are no longer a surprise, but are the norm. The only True Technological Break Through, is when a totally NEW technology is perfected, as in say Fusion Power, or a Warp Drive. The rest is convergence and tweaking of existing technologies.


But at the same time as there is the prediction of the end of the computer chip, they are predicting that Integrated Circuits will be everywhere, as ubiquitous as electricity is today. Also that with this "everywhere, and no where" experience, there will be such convergence and exponential growth in the use of computing power, we will be able to experience the world as never before. Chips (IC units) will be the new scrap paper. A new throw away society?? Technology at the snap of our fingers, or the whisper of a word, the wink of an eye. New and wide spread energy sources, along with an era of Abundance, never before known to humanity, as a whole. Disease eradicated by the middle of the century, and an egalitarian society, for all, where humans and robots will mingle together as equals. MIT has even predicted that by the turn of the mid century, humans and robots may even be marrying or at least living common law.

We are moving from a Man Made Society to a Robot Made Society, where the last usefulness of humanity over robots and computers, will have been reached, (for now). The art of creation, imagination and ingenuity. The big question in the minds of futurologists, "Will this usher in an era of Utopian wealth and ease for all of humanity, or a Dystopia where only a few are able to take advantage, and the majority are relegated to a sub human existence.

Future Meds Today

During the Second World War, British Bomber Command created a squadron, which they named the Pathfinder Squadron; the British were bombing Europe at night, and they were finding that a lot of their bombs were going wide of the target; collateral damage was not really a problem back then, other than it was a waste of effort; this is a bit like some medicines today, we take a medicine, and it attacks the whole body, not just the parts that we want to affect; and the side affects, or collateral damage, can be devastating, or keep a useful medication off the market;
   So what did the Pathfinders do? They flew in ahead of the main stream, at low altitude, and with pin point accuracy, would literally, "Light up the target area" with incendiary flares, which the main stream of bombers, could use to place their bomb aiming instruments on; thus increase the accuracy and effectiveness.

Bring the age of medication to the 21st century, and combine new technology, with the philosophy of the Path Finder Squadron, and a whole new arena of drugs comes into existence; take a pill that has properties that identify the area or cells that are to be attacked. Light up the cells for further attack, via other medications, nano-tech machines, or even computer guided laser surgery; all for pin point accuracy.

   For now this is being researched for Cancer Treatment, but it may be that we expand this to treat other diseases;

   One added advantage of this, is that it isn't necessary to be able to "see" the target cells, it is just enough to know that they are there. For instance, technology is going to be able to identify a tumor almost immediately it has begun forming. At this time, we are able to identify tumors or growths, in cancer cells only after they have begun to affect the body, in the near future, we will be able to detect them very early; making early treatment all the more important and effective. Instead of attacking 30,000 cancer cells replicating every 2 weeks, we will be able to detect 200 spread out in the body, replicating every 4 months; and dealing with them without needing to identify where; the technology or the medications will find them. Doctors will only have to be sure that they have detected their presence in the body, via say, blood, saliva, urine, perspiration or expelled breath.

   The machines for detecting minute changes in the human body are already coming into existence. I have mentioned in other blogs, the Star-Trek Tricorder, XPrize; but there are other developments happening in the realm of detection, that have preceded this XPrize, and have nothing to do with it, that may be here before the Tricorder. We are on the verge, of having CT, and MIR scanners in the doctor's office, that will be hooked up to the examination bed, which will in the future become a diagnostic bed, with multiple instrumentation to examine the body laying upon it.

In the last century there was a movie, where a team of medical professionals were shrunk and injected into a human body. 13 years ago, Nano-Technology produced the first parts of a nano-engine; today we are working on manufacturing small Nano bots for injection into the human blood stream, for various treatments and identifications of malfunctioning organs. Instead of an Angio-plasty, and Stents, a patient may be injected with Nano-bots with the ability to clean the arteries of the body of plaque on an out patient basis; when done the bots will just be expelled or absorbed by the body.

    In a study of rats, with damaged heart muscles, from heart attacks, their stem cells were injected into their heart muscles, with the idea to test what the effect would be. Hoping the damaged muscles would be repaired. Well, the damaged area was repaired, but also, the stem cells went on to regenerate other parts of the heart's muscle. The question now is, what would be the effect on the whole body, if stems cells were injected that could affect a healing of say, torn ligaments, or arthritic knees. Then too, where would they stop working? Medicine is only just beginning to "play" with stem cells, now that the constraint of not being able to use the patient's own cells, has been removed.

  100 years ago, most people could not afford an accurate thermometer, and 20 years ago, having a blood pressure monitor was low tech, and the blood test kit for blood sugar, was low tech strips that only gave an approximation; today we have thermometers, blood sugar monitors, and blood pressure monitors that are high tech, with LED read outs immediately; but for the most part they are invasive to use. A woman in the US, has developed at one of the Universities the technology to test blood sugar using the patient's own saliva; no more sticking a body part for blood. But wait, others have been developing other tech that works on the saliva, the expelled breath, and the bodies own skin temperature and perspiration. It will only take a convergence of technology to bring these together and produce a machine in our homes that will be as ubiquitous as the thermometer has been for the past 50 years, and in another 30 years will be a common as the wrist watch was, part of our everyday attire. Plugging us in to a whole new order of medical detection and diagnosis. 
 
    Sci-Fi tries to predicted the future of society and technology, but more and more, I see society and technology outstripping Sci-Fi; Jules Verne, predicted the Nuclear Submarine and The Rocket to the Moon; but even his predictions happened almost 100 years later. In the 60s Sci-Fi predicted our world, but it only has taken 30-50 years for some of the more outlandish ideas to become fact. And in 20 years anything we predict today will be on the drawing board somewhere in the world.

Welcome to the future, have your boarding pass ready!!

Pair of Dimes and how we view the world

When Change happens there is what is called a Paradigm Shift. This shifting of Thought Patterns, is in the Psychological aspects of thinking: The World View of The Individual, and collectively, Society

When Telephones were invented, the nearest form of a similar communication method was the telegraph system. This required an operator or intermediary, to send and receive the communications for the sender and the receiver; With Telephones the operator or intermediary was taken out of the loop, and communications become direct between the receiver and operator, two way and with a sense of immediacy; this was a sea change in communications over long distances (10 miles) and change how society operated;

Simplistic to us today, who are 100 years from that society. Yet a similar effect was experienced in the early 80's when cellular phones (cell phones to us) and later in 1989, when the Internet was created and e-mails and later video communications were possible, which later in 2010, Cellular Phones and the Internet Computers were combined to bring us the Star Trek Communicator Uber device, the Smart Phone, and in 2012 to combine with Tablet Computers. Thus bringing a communications immediacy and familiarity that wipes out distances of time and space, language and social/cultural barriers, to enabling the interaction of Millions of people in real time, via Twitter, and other social media. Truly creating a World Wide Web of Humanity with Connectiveness that is unrivaled in human history.

In the space of 100 years our society has been altered by these technological innovations; the "Change" has had a profound effect upon our Psychological View of the World, and it brings with it a Real Sense of Altered States of Mind. Compared to the Past Sense or States of Mind, World Views, we have moved from being infants playing in the living room or garden, to teenagers, roaming the city, and experiencing the world as young adults. We are no longer citizens of a city state, tribe or nation, but World Citizens in every sense of that word except political, and that is only a matter of time.

When Bede wrote his History of the English, he was projecting his own bias on an unfounded societal unity, that didn't exist; but by inspiring one warlord, he gave "King" Alfred, and his descendants a changed perspective of England, and an Altered State of Mind, or World View, comparable to the changes from hunter gatherer, bronze to iron age societies. That change has lasted over 1000 years of History, and is in some minor ways continuing. 

Today, we are on the threshold of massive Technological Change, that will alter our world views again, and change the way society views the world, itself, and it's place in the universe. We can only say that our lives and the societies we live in, will be changed beyond recognition. Our descendants will look back in 25-30 years and see us, in the latter part of the 20th Century, and Early 21st Century, as we look back on the 19th Century. We cannot begin to predict the individual societal effects or collective effects this might have on social order. From my perspective of history, it will be comparable to the change from Feudal Serf to Free Man, from persons viewing the world through the lens of Religious Dogma to the Renaissance Man who begins seeing the World through the eyes of Scientific Discovery.

Paradigm Shifts, and Overview Effects are two sides of the same coin, and only more specifically, are coming at us continuously now. A day does not go by that something new is not trumpeted from the media that we carry with us as easily as we used to carry a handkerchief, 50 - 60 years ago. Opportunities for massed produced “improved” technology is constantly accelerating, and changing. Various developments that began 8, 3 and 1 year ago, are coming to a newsstand (computer or tablet screen), tech store (on the High Street / Main Street) in your city and cyber space, near you yesterday.

Back before of the 20^th Century, it was easy for our politicians and religious leaders to keep us in little boxes. We happily marched off to wars and died in droves, Cannon Fodder for the Elites. But with the availability of Mass Media (first in the form of telephone and radio), or perhaps better said, Mass Communication Devices, Information has become the leveler of society. We now have access to information libraries and up to date news, that two decades ago were the prerogatives of Heads of States. The only way they have of keeping us in their boxes, is to appeal to our prejudices and fears; keeping us ignorant is actually a benefit to them.

However it is a paradox that while ignorant, we are less useful to society as a whole to bring about progress. So a population that is ignorant, and ill educated, is unequipped for the future. They are like an animal that looses out to a more advanced species. They are going to stagnate and descend in the social order of nations, on the planet. The only other alternative, is for heavy repressive measures to keep the bulk of society under control, via the use of force. That didn't work within Europe in the Middle Ages, when the Church and the Elites tried to keep Science under control, and therefore society in status quo, when the printing press was changing the world. So too, we are seeing that too is not able to keep societies in check (Arab Spring, Syria and Libya) now that we have the WWW/Computers/Smart Phones and Social Media.

Societies as a whole, whether in the West, Middle East, Africa and Asia, are beginning to wake up to new Paradigm Shifts, and seeing the World differently, than the previous generations. They are not going to willing  return to the past, anymore than the English of Alfred's generation would go back to the social chaos of waring tribes.

What will be their future is a question many want to answer, but as in the past 50 years, only very hazy field of views are available. Like the effect of the Birth Control Pill on young women, and their choices, so too the creation of Robotic Artificial Intelligence, combined with new and better materials and technologies to enclose them, to mimic humans, will have a profound effect on humanity. No prediction seems too outlandish, from the first Space Traveler to Mars to Marriage between humans and robots, is promulgated in the media. That is just one change that is happening. What we do know, is that we will get a few things right in a general way, but in a specific way, we will be unable to predict the way that the individual will mold the future. No one would have predicted how computers would change society, back 50 years ago. Star Trek got some things right, in 1968, but only in general. The Communicator of Captain Kirk and later Captain Picard, are a far cry from the communicator of today, and more importantly, how we use them to communicate, and interact over vast distances.

In less than a generation, we will have a device, that will either fit near our ear, or embedded, that will connect us to a WWW cloud, with all the information of Mankind, and able to communicate with anyone on the planet in real time. Science Fiction you say, well, look at your Smart Phone, and it's capabilities, and extrapolate the capabilities of computers into it, in the form of a Blue Tooth ear and glasses, set in 5 to 10 years. Then take the information, that we have someone who can move an object connected to her nervous system, with her mind, and research into electro synaptic telepathy, with an X prize competition, the next step is only to move that into the real world within our brains.

As I have said before, The Future is here, have your boarding passes ready!!

What is th e Overveiw Effect, and what are it's advantages

If nothing else, everyone down here on the surface needs to get a dose of the Overview Effect, yesterday.

First off, what is it

       Back in the Apollo Era and since then, Astronauts that go into space, and see the planet from a distance, as a blue, white, brown and green orb, hanging in a velvet black sky, with it's Earth Phases (similar to the phases of the Moon) are awe struck and have a paradigm shift in World View or consciousness; this changed there way of thinking about their place in the human family, and their view of the place that we as a group have in relationship to our planet, the Fragile Nest Syndrome;

So what does this have to do with the statement above

     WELL, pretty much everything; what the person who said it is suggesting, is that everyone on the planet Earth, needs to see the world, their place in it, and our collective place, on the Planet, and in the Universe, as an astronaut had;

      Just as when Galleio turned his telescope from looking at distant objects on the planet, to distant objects in the sky, and forever changed Man’s place in the Solar System and the Cosmos, then when Hubble discovered that his Nebula were actually Islands of Stars in a Universe filled with such Islands, we have been expanding our view of our place in that Universe, or Universes, becoming less and less The Centre of Creation, that our Religions had once placed us at; making those that look up, realize how small and yet remarkable we are in this Universe, while we look outward;

      But getting outside our planet and having a look back is all the more astounding, as it is unexpected after all the mind bending, conscious raising experiences of education here on Earth, because it is so profoundly life changing; people who come back, (and there have been over 500 since the dawn of the Space Age when Yuri Gagarin first flew) that it has become a noticeable reaction to Space Travel; and as more and more people, who are simply tourists, travel into Space, the number of voices will be raised and the effects on our societies will be more noticeable, as they tell people of the experience, and get them to go;

       If a large enough number, a tipping force, could be translated into Space to view the world in REAL time, and not just through the eye of a camera, the effect on our planet would be unstoppable; the future would be forever changed, and us with it; as a Space Faring Species we would be able to look out from our home, with one view, and in a hoped for harmony; to cherish the home, while searching out, or building Deep Space place for us to live in our Solar System, and eventually other star systems; we would truly become the Intelligence that is unstoppable in it’s search for The Ultimate
Questions of Life and The Universe;

Is there any urgency to creating a self-sustaining off-Earth presence

In 1962 I was 14, and I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis as if it were yesterday; that night, waiting for the bomb, my brother and I lost our innocence; Mom and Dad could not protect us from everything;

Leap forward to Y2K, and “the end of the world”, it was less frightening to me, as I knew from IT people that I worked with that it would not happen to the extent that was predicted; if at all; but others didn’t have access to that knowledge, and I was on suicide call that night; no one I know, died that night; but the terror was real;

As a species we have only crawled up out of our caves and huts, given up our hunter gatherer ways, to embrace “civilization” and “farming” 9,000 years ago, just after the end of the last Ice Age; we are in an intermediate phase; and have just about used up the easily available resources on this planet; if it were not for our advance technological society, the resources that we need to exist, would be beyond our reach and we would have drifted back into the Stone Age, hundreds of years ago;

Regardless of what ‘Might’ happen in the way of a catastrophic event, we are coming to the limits of Earth’s ability to sustain our species; “The Bank Account” that we have been drawing on, is coming close to being empty, unless we find a fundamentally new source of energy, new resources and ways to feed and cloth the 9 Billion people that will inhabit this planet in 39 years;

Climate change is real, and has always been around; it happened 10,000 years ago with the last Ice Age and has been fluctuating ever since; regardless of who is to blame, it is happening now; and we are able to monitor it for the first time; Social and Cultural Upheaval is inevitable, and will be uncontrollable if we don’t have alternatives in place before the middle of this century; while there are many people working on those alternatives here on the planet, and a few far sighted ones working on Space alternatives, we need a “Manhatten” style project to kick start real change; bits and pieces randomly scattered about, competing against each other may leave us no time;

How urgent is it; Extremely Urgent; the Tsunami of 2004 and the earth quakes on the Pacific Rim last year are a small taste of what can happen; they didn’t matter when the human population of this planet was only a few million; but now that we are concentrated in some of the deadliest volcanic areas on this planet, the threat is huge; we have seen how Minor Volcanic Events, such as in Iceland, can affect whole regions, and how Solar Flares can knock out our Electrical Grid as it did in Canada's province of Quebec; do we really need a Tunguska or Meteor Crater Event to prove that we are an endangered and vulnerable species; 

Believe it or not, since the middle of the 20^th Century, humanity has experience the most profoundly peaceful times in the last 2000 years; the danger of dieing from wars has decreased with every decade, regardless of what some politicians and generals will tell you; the amount of co-operation amongst developed and developing nations has been phenomenal; for those, and for all the reasons I have given above, now is the time to push forward to become a Space Faring Species; I don’t say multi-planetary, as I feel that is too limiting; in some ways, it would be easier to build Space Stations, rather than try to live on inhospitable planets; but I don’t think we should ignore either;

To answer the last question, how long do we have to build a half-sustaining off world presence? I am not sure a half-sustaining presence would survive; it most certainly would be a finger nail clinging to the rock face of the cliff existence; much like the bottle neck that some think existed in South Africa when the rest of Africa became a desert and uninhabitable for thousands of years; not that that was the only time; it is only the most profound;

I would prefer a fully self sustainable presence, based on Space Resource Utilization, not dependent on Earth; whether it is 100 on an outpost or 10,000 persons scattered in groups through the solar system; so long as they were able to be Space Faring, and had a sustainable economic infrastructure, that is all that would matter; 

Starting now, with something between what we have now and a full blown “Manhatten” project, we could be out there in a generation, (80 years) living, breeding, settling and exploring the Solar System out to the Oort Cloud, with the rest of Space Beckoning;

What is the most amazing fact about the Universe

for me, the most interesting thing about Our universe, is that it is perfectly balanced for life; just as our planet's place is in the perfect spot for life, the Goldilocks Zone, so is our Universe; not too much gravity, and not to little gravity, just the right amount for stars to evolve, that can create the stuff of life, which we are made of; now how amazing is that; and you don't need to postulate a Supreme Being to know this, it is knowable through the study of physics;

which is even more amazing, as it shows that intelligent life is capable of evolving in this Universe, able to answer the deepest questions of it's existence, without needing to rely on a first cause for the answers; and this intelligent life, which we are, is only 2 million years old, less than a billionth of a second, on the cosmic 24 hour clock; yet smaller than the smallest known part of an atom, in relation to the vastness of the Universe; who needs religion to feel the humility of our existence;

Why is Space now Inspiring the Future

Well, my forum name Cro-Magnon Gramps, marks me out as someone who has been around a long, long time, and I am not ashamed to say I turn 65 this coming January; to me it is astronishing that I made it past 30; but I digress

  Back in 1958, when I was 10, watching B/W tv, and forced to listen to the news, as at 6 pm whatever else was happening, Dad got the TV and switched it over; politics and history were a steady diet in our house; and the daily news, and the news paper boys delivery was a part of it; it seemed that from that early age, advances were being made monthly; something new was happening and we were on top of the world, except for one fly in the ointment: THE COLD WAR

  We didn't get the in school lessons on surviving a nuclear attack, but we knew, oh, how we knew; at 15 when I finally got out of grade 8, we asked, "What are you going to be, IF you grow up?"
but the Space Race and the advances in science and technology that were flooding the news back then, were more than a cup of Kool-aid, they sustained us, gave us a bit of hope that things could be better; then the Viet-nam war was transferred to USA shoulders from France; and life became bleak again; I was old enough to make the comparison with the Spanish Civil War of the 30s;

  Dec 1968, that Christmas, we had a Colour TV and we could see with the Apollo 8 astronauts, the Earth as they came around the Lunar Rim, and they read the words of Genesis; I wasn't and still am not terribly religious, but as a human being, it struck a deep emotional chord; this is what HUMANS OF GOOD WILL COULD DO! War was not the only answer;

June 1969, I cheered with my siblings and parents, with the launch of Apollo 11 and the First Steps on another rock circling our Sun; in the intervening years, I had learned how small our little world was in comparison to the Milky Way Galaxy, but I still had no idea how small our Galaxy was in comparison to the vastness of space and time; it only served to accentuate the pointlessness of war and violence against others;

  The end of Apollo was an end of Innocence; the intervening years, while science seemed to take a back burner to wars, politics and economic upheavals in the news, people became less and less informed about the future; the dreams of 1999, and a brave new world, forged in the 60s were gone; while some things changed, for the 70s to the mid 90s it was a wasteland of broken dreams;

  Then along came affordable computers, powerful enough not to be considered toys; and then the Internet; and hope began to bloom again; the Space Shuttle was a dream come true; albeit a flawed dream; however taken all together, we could dream again; I had had computers since 1986, but it was in September 1998, that I bought my first real computer, and got e-mail; and got my first really decent job, via an e-mail sent to a magazine website, working on it's mailing list, using a "high end" computer;


The WOW factor in life had been restored; I remember the day, it was St Patrick's Day 1999, when the IT department sent out an e-mail with links to sites in Ireland and said, go at it and "surf" the net; and for the first time, in the space of half an hour, I flew around the world from Ireland to Australia, South Africa and I can't remember where else; it was mind boggling;

  Along the way, the realization of all the information that was out there; learning was free, the public library was no longer on the other side of town, but right there in my living room; yes it has grown, but that first realization, and opening of my senses, was like a blind man seeing; I began following my inclinations to where ever they would take me; and ultimately they led me to NASA, and NSF; it has been a long journey from a 10 year old kid to a 64 year old man, but I feel privileged to be here, to share in a dream that took root, almost died, but is still there: War is not the only answer, and The World can pull together to be a better place for all;

  SpaceX, Direct, Constellation, and all the other things that are happening in Science/Exploration are hidden away; where in the 60s they were trumpeted on front pages, and the 6 and 11 pm news programs; given full time coverage on Network Television; now they are hidden away; the excuse: People are not interested; the truth be told, people are not interested, because they don't know any better; the old lie, "we got to get our act together down here, before going out there" "we have better uses to spend all that money on" just don't wash anymore; they were the same lies that were used in 69-73, to kill the Apollo program; and where has the past 50 years got us; have those nay-sayers made good use of the intervening years to answer those statements; no, there is more poverty, there are still wars; our infrastructure and economies are still on the edge of collapse; what has been changed or accomplished by canceling the Apollo program: nothing, not a sodden thing;

  The space agencies are still struggling along, with fewer and fewer resources; but now they have partners that are not part of the MIC, and who are willing to dream the big dreams again; who have taken up that quest of the Star Trek generation, to boldly go where no man has gone before; and that is where they inspire and drive us to dream again; Nu-Space companies who are willing to be different, and not say, "Well, if I don't get my Government Contract, I'm not going to build that Space Craft to Mars!!!"; and while they talk big, and take their time, they will inspire a new generation of entrepreneurs and investors to build "the new cathedrals" for mankind, as memorials to themselves and to the dreamers of the past and future Earth;

2012, the watershed year for humanity

Schnee Wolfe

Been thinking about 2012, and what it means to the future, and how the future will see the beginning of this Millennium;

First, it has been a rocky road economically, since the 90's and it doesn't look to be about to change; this is because the foundations upon which our economies rest, have changed from manufacturing, to information, and technology in the hands of the masses (Literally); this can only be accelerated as we become more technologically/information consumers, with ever more complex gadgets become available, for communications, medicine, and entertainment/education;

Second, there has been an unleashing of money stored up in banks, by Billionaires, around the world, out to make a mark in the world, to be remembered, not necessarily to make more money; many are in high risk ventures, where as it is said, how to become a Millionaire, start with a Billion Dollars, and go into XYZ industry; well, many are, from racing cars, and boats, investing in world charities, exploration to the furthest unreached places of our planet, to now starting up space infrastructure companies, building rockets, space ships, and robots to travel the inner solar system;

Third, it is no longer the realm of governments to push the boundaries of human society, in many cases they can't afford to, having become risk and progressive issues averse; government has become stagnated, and backward looking; it has become the norm to be ultra conservative, and yearn for the past; pushing against the progressive factions in society; like the little boy with his finger in the dyke, in Holland, they see only the trickle that is before them, not the great waves pouring over the edges around them;

2012 has seen the final proving or disproving of a Physics problem that has puzzled physicists for 50 - 60 years; Commercial Space has taken the lead in development of humanities adventure to the stars, though NASA and other Gov't Space Agencies haven't seen the writing on the wall yet; the potential for people to live beyond 120 or 150 years has become a reality, in the labs, and will in 30 years become common place; Robots, will no longer be in factories or as toys, but will have evolved in 30 years to be fully human, even as we speak one of their ancestors in on the Space Station, doing useful work; and these are only the peaks of an iceberg, that lies around us; 

In summary, this year, 2012, will be a watershed year for humanity; not just North America, "The Western Civilizations", but the whole world; in 20 to 30 years from now, people will look back, just as my parents generation did, in the late 30's and 40's and wonder at how far they have come, with all the new stuff; but they will have no conception, of what the future will be like for their children or Grand-Children; it will be as alien to them, as it would be traveling back to the year 1812;



Welcome to the future, got your boarding pass??

Letter to NATO re Misrata

Open letter to NATO - April 17th 2011

http://www.jfcnaples.nato.int/page12055113.aspx

Hello,

it has been pointed out by this interview from a person in Misrata

http://justpaste.it/ahp

that when G. Troops are bombarding the town, the NATO planes are absent from the area. but just before the planes show up, the guns go silent; and when they leave, the bombardment begins again;

there are two possibilities

1) NATO is in calusion with G. to give G. Misrata; which I have difficulty believing, but others might not;

2) some how the G. forces are being warned of approaching NATO planes; speculation is, that an "unknown" ship is in the Gulf, monitoring ATC and possibly using radar to plot the NATO planes;

if the latter is the case, is there nothing that NATO can do about the situation, instead of leaving Misrata and others at the mercy of the GRADS and now the threat of SCUD missile attack; if G. uses a SCUD against the FF Cities this will be the last straw; politically and militarily for NATO and the COALITION; you will have lost all credibility in the eyes of the world

Schnee

How the CRTC is proposing to change how you use the Internet and Innovative Technologies




by Schnee Wolfe on Tuesday, February 1, 2011 at 8:57pm

On Wednesday,January 26th, 2011, the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission issued a decision to allow incumbent Media Oligarchies (controlling Cable TV services and stations, Telephone - both wireless and cellular, Internet, and various other news and public affairs services) to charge Usage Based Billing that raised the costs charged to small ISPs that lease bandwidth on the networks of Bell and Bell Aliant, mainly in Ontario and Quebec. This led DSL Internet Providers, like Teksavvy, to issue changes to plans effective March 1st, that started at 25 gb bandwidth, down from the 200 gb for the same price, of 32 dollars a month. The result is that the costs more than doubled.

The regulator has also recently issued decrees that allowed large incumbents to shape ISPs’ network traffic (slow it down). This weekend and the past two days, I immediately saw a change in my service speed and availability, even while simply using a browser to surf the internet; lag of graphic intense sites increased, and the number of times warnings came up that the web page was taking too long to load, and would I like to reduce my browsers ability to load graphics. This is intolerable, this is not competition this is abuse of the consumer in the name of monopolistic practices to close down competition.

This is not about Internet Traffic, this is about control of the Information Highway, and how the Consumer Accesses it, and who he pays for the information. In the long run, this may not mean much as technology will always leap frog legislative regulations. But in the short term, it will throttle our ability to compete in the Global Market, and show case our abilities to develop and deploy innovative technologies and data.

If each mail, freight, bus and courier company had had to develop it's own infrastructure to deliver services to the consumer, then Canada would now have been covered in roads and various airports. This analogy suits the existing infrastructure for telecommunications in that the wires, radio waves and cables should be owned and operated by the people of Canada, allowing open access to all. Placing them in the hands of a few Media Oligarchies does not serve my interests, nor my children's. Instead of debating who owns the "roads", lets put them in the hands of their rightful owners, in a way that ensures that they are used for the good of the Country as a whole, and use our time and energies to improve those "roads" with Fiber Optic to the Home and Access for Rural Canadians of more than just the basics.

Of Poverty and Strays

"A person is poor, when they are wanting something that they cannot have; I don't think of myself as poor, because there is nothing that I can't have, if I am willing to wait for it; if a person can't wait, and MUST have it NOW, then they are truly poor, no matter how much money they may have, because they will never be satisfied or content"

     I remember going to the store with change, and not having 2 cents to get the 5 lb bag of apples on sale, and had to take the 3 lb bag; then in the parking lot found the 3 cents; but I didn't go back; perhaps I should have, but I was content with what I had; I have a roof over my head, food and clothing, friends and family; so I don't have a 6 figure income or even a 5 figure for the matter; 4 will do me fine, and I am able to live on it a sustainable life, that being one that progresses, and doesn't go backwards;

     This year I was patient and now have a laptop dual core (needs a bit of TLC) with Win. 7 that cost me 200 dollars, and a free 7 year old G4 that had reached the end of it's useful life in an office, saved from the grave yard, I bought a $180 Skil drill press, end of line, for less than half price ($80), and a DeWalt 10 inch Compound mitre saw $224 dollars; the 7 cubic ft freezer is chock full, have meat and vegetables enough for the winter; about 50 lbs of flour, AP, Whole Wheat, Cake 'n Pastry; 20 lbs of rice; 19 lbs of home made mincemeat, 3 cakes and a pudding for Christmas;  this week I made 14 litres of Ginger Beer, and have been making micro batches of wine for the past 3 months which by next spring will be a cellar of 30+ bottles; not that I am a big drinker, but it is a cheap hobby which I have been learning for the past 17 years off an on; I have enough acrylic paints for my other hobby of landscape painting, and I did the 4x3 ft canvas from it, and a couple of sketches and still have paint and canvas left; the workshop equipment I am planning on using for making frames for the canvas to stretch on, and to make frames to put around some of my paintings and photos; the plan being to get money saved to buy some more prints and frame them for next summers yard sale; as well as other little projects, like a new counter top, and an exercise station that I can use standing up, that will only take up 3 ft x 3 ft of space;

     LIFE is moving forward, not backward; so long as that is happening, then one can't complain of being poor; when I look back to 3 years ago or even 5-6 years ago, when I was making $20,000 a year before taxes, and heavily in debt because of the years of only making 5-7 dollars an hour and living in the center of Toronto, I have to say that I am truly blessed to be able to live at the standard of living I am now enjoying; would I like to be earning more, certainly, but it would only mean that I would be saving faster for things like wood, canvas and the print shop photos;

       My Goal is to be as self sufficient as possible when I reach age 65 in 2 years; I am not looking to be uber rich, but to be in a sustainable income situation that will grow with the cost of living, and will enable me to remain living a healthy and fulfilling life; and not to be someone's stray project;

        Tonight that came at me rather forcefully; my daughter  and grandson were watching a movie on seals (the animals) and they heard a noise that they took to be from the TV, but when they turned off the movie, the noise persisted; when they opened the front door, a cat/kitten shot in, and sat shivering in the living room; well, a rescue effort was initiated by my brother and his wife, and in short order there was food, cat litter and a cat box over there; the kitten, for that is what she is, is about 9 months old, and has obviously been around humans and is not a feral cat; also, she has been looked after; now whether she is an escapee, or abandoned (anyone who abandons animals in this weather (-3c) should be pushed out of their homes for the night as a lesson) is hard to tell, but she has made herself at home and is very affectionate; she has made a friend in my daughter ;-) and will if necessary have found a home;

       my point is, that while I am on Gov't Assistance now, I don't want it to last any longer than necessary; I don't want to be someone's project either; I want to be either a partner with someone, contributing to the marriage, or independent of Gov't help other than my CPP and OAP; and to that end, I am utilizing the money that I do have to the best advantage that I can, while still having a life; as I said at the beginning, I am not poor,
 

Open letter to Heather Malleck of the Tor-Star

Hi Heather, I am having the devil's own time of logging in to comment, but I want to make a point!

I am disabled, 63 in January, and unlike other's don't want a CPP Disability Pension, it will limit what I can earn at a later date, IF I am ever able to get something going.Ontario DSP, when I applied, replied that I wasn't disabled enough.I need to be under a nurses care.
My income is made up of 180 dollars CPP and the rest tops up to 643 with OW/SS benefits. The CPP is limited because of back injuries and surgery when I was in my 30's working in warehousing and have been forced in my work life to take either low paying, or non CPP deducting jobs, or be a stay at home dad; in the end, while I asked my ex wife to give me the years that she holds, for CPP, which I looked after the kids, she rightly refused; those were years she worked and contributed to the fund (btw we're friends); I am SOL; at 64 I will apply for the Old Age Supplement, to get it when I arrive at 65; but in the mean time, I jog along, making a bit of progress each month; life is not all beer and pretzels, but it sure is better than water and bread ;-)
Health wise I have deteriorated, but I am not giving up my dreams; I am not going to give the Scrooges that are commenting on your column the satisfaction of seeing my body on the DVP after a flying leap off the Via Duct; In this day and age, it would be easy to rephrase Scrooges reply to the men looking for donations for the poor, in modern terms; (see below)
Am I down Hearted?? NO!!! (Brit ex-pat) other than the occasional depression about being single, and that rarely, I am moving forward not backward;

Cheers

SW

****************************************************

First Collector: At this festive time of year, Mr. Scrooge, it is more than usually desirable that we should make some slight provision for the poor and destitute.
Ebenezer: Are there no prisons?
First Collector: Plenty of prisons and many more being built, with stricter sentences.
Ebenezer: And the Social Services and Ontario Works systems, they are still in operation, supplying cheap part time labour?? And the Food Banks, Thrift Stores and Soup Kitchens have not closed down?
First Collector: They are. I wish I could say they were not so necessary.
Ebenezer: Oh, from what you said at first I was afraid that something had happened to stop them in their useful course. I'm very glad to hear it.
First Collector: I don't think you quite understand us, sir. A few of us are endeavoring to buy the poor some meat and drink, and means of warmth.
Ebenezer: Why?
First Collector: Because it is at Christmastime that want is most keenly felt, and abundance rejoices. Now what can I put you down for?
Ebenezer: Huh! Nothing!
Second Collector: You wish to be anonymous?
Ebenezer: [firmly, but calmly] I wish to be left alone. Since you ask me what I wish sir, that is my answer. I help to support the establishments I have named through my taxes and support for the Conservative Party; those who are badly off must go there.
First Collector: Many can't go there.
Second Collector: And some would rather die.
Ebenezer: [firmly, loudly and dismissively] Then let them die and decrease the burden on the GDP!!! GOOD DAY, Gentlemen!!!

Making Christmas

I have been thinking this past couple of days about "Why am I hitting my head against the lack of Enthusiasm for Christmas traditions amongst my family and others??" only a few people are involved in Christmas, and other's are either expecting the Old Folks to Make Christmas, or are doing the commercial thing, of buying ready made products; to busy to be involved in the Real Spirit of Christmas

Some of it can be laid at the feet of Parents who have done everything, and not involved the kids; for others it is our fast paste lives, spread out from Family and Friends; while still more likely is the lack of any desire to get into a Seasonal Spirit of Past Traditions Handed Down, it's too much work and takes time, so not the quick fix that the Fast Food / Instant Gratification Society wants life to be;

My generation may be the last one to have grown up with and done for themselves the Christmas Traditions, at least as far as I know in my own immediate family; only one Daughter has any inclination to Make Christmas, and she married a man who is into that as well; regardless of his other faults, he is still someone that I am glad is in the family ;-)
This year we will have our first Christmas Dinner here at the house, with a Pot Luck, overly organized but still a start; then on New Years Day, we are planning another dinner Pot Luck, we will have more of the traditions of the family, with additions from my daughter's husband, mixing in; it will be a Made Celebration, not bought; home made beer, mead, punch, wines; puddings, cakes, and year old mincemeat I started last January; 4-5 traditional cookies, cinnamon buns, Christmas Tryfle and Jul log rolls; the nuts, cold cuts, cheeses, with home made sausage rolls, buns and breads; and of course The Real Music and Movies of Christmas !!


But Christmas Traditions are more than just food and partying; they are just a way of sharing and caring amongst the family; each one bringing what they do best, and making up the Celebration; for the religious or spiritual amongst us, it is a concrete way of sharing the Gift of the Messiah with the family and friends; by going amongst the houses and visiting, sharing a drink, cookies or cold lunches, along with chat and hugs, that is building relationships that epitomize the Spirit of the Season; whatever religion we belong to it is universal to people at this time of transition in the yearly calendar;

What to me are important traditions, won't be important to others, and while I won't do all their traditions, I will realize they are important to them and respect their doing and sharing; in the end we all grow and develop as people and friends; if I had not met the Wagners and other Northern and Eastern Europeans, I would not have the joy and pleasure of those traditions in my Christmas, added to my own families traditions; it is an evolving organic celebration that can and will change with each generation, but the core is always there; as my son said in November, Christmas to him now, would not be Christmas without the Weihnachten Lieder or German Christmas Songs to those who don't know the term;

Prettige Kerstdagen en een Gelukkig Nieuwjaar
Frohe Weihnachten und ein glückliches neues Jahr
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year
Noflike Krystdagen en in Lokkich Nijjier
Joyeux Noël et Bonne Année
Glædelig Jul og Godt Nytår
God Jul og Godt Nyttår
God jul och gott nytt år
Boas Festas e um feliz Ano Novo
Feliz Navidad y Próspero Año Nuevo
Buon Natale e felice anno nuovo
Mele Kalikimaka me ka Hau'oli Makahiki Hou
Veselé Vánoce a Šastný Nový Rok!
Hyvää Joulua Ja Onnellista Uutta Vuotta!
Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda!
Wesolych swiat i szczesliwego nowego roku

The going, not the destination!!!

Space the New Frontier, to boldly ignore it, and grow fat and lazy, to go no where, and live the status quo; is that what we should do!! To listen to a lot of people, who complain that there are more important things to do here on Earth, and we don't have the Billions it will take to go into Space, we would think so. 

      Mr and Mrs Joe Nobody, and their kids, have more to worry about on a daily basis than getting into Space; that is a luxury they can't afford; what with the economy tanking and jobs scarce; petrol, food, housing, health and education costs rising as fast as the waters of the oceans because of Global Climate Change (whatever the cause) how can they possibly have time to think of the consequences of NOT becoming a Space Faring Species; 

       But we as a Species are stuck in a basement apartment, with all our basic needs met, even if it is getting crowded and the supplies are getting spread thin; it is a nice basement apartment and so we don't notice that things are getting a bit tight; but like for myself, it is a beautiful trap; 

         I live in a lovely basement apartment, with a full freezer, stove, 4 rooms including kitchen, toilet, workshop and laundry facilities; groceries and other supplies are delivered; there really is no NEED to go upstairs; but in the past 5 years, I have experienced a degenerating body; I can do nothing and stay in my lovely basement, but eventually I will be carried out and put in a Nursing Home, where a 20 something beauty, will change my diaper, while another one will feed me, another give me sponge baths, and I will sit in a wheel chair in front of a picture window looking out on the world that I would once have explored at will, but now restricted from for my own safety; 

           Or I can fight against the enclosing future, and exercise my body and work towards getting out of my basement, not that I need anything up there, but because to do so will free me from a future of dependency and degeneration;

           That is the choice that the human species has; the destinations, of Moon, Cis-Lunar, NEO, LEO, the Inner Planets and the Outer Planets, are not important, as we don't need what they have; we can live without them, but eventually we will degenerate and become a marginalized and extinct species, whether by global cataclysm, or just the degeneration of our society through war and pestilence; the goal is not as important, as it is the doing and going, which will exercise our species muscles of intellect and economy;  

            I have said nothing of the potential dangers that lurk in my basement; the possibility of a fire. quake, or heat attack, that could leave me trapped if I am unable to climb the stairs to the outside door, because my leg muscles have degenerated to the point that climbing the stairs is impossible; I already have one leg that last year was at that point due to an injury; by persistent use, I have brought it up to 50% strength, and perhaps I can increase that yet; but like the Space Industry, if I don't have that goal of doing, it will remain withered and useless; getting out of the house is not the goal, as the Moon is not the goal, the real goal is to be able to get up those stairs, or in the case of humanity, to develop the ability to go into Space where ever we wish; 

What is Destiny and how do we walk it out!!

Truly trying to come to grips with that word destiny, and what's next; in truth,  a friend probably said it best in her e-mail, it is a rapid ride that we control the day to day (free will), but in the background is the real direction maker; 

I think of it as being a river, where we are in a kayak, and at times there are quiet pools of reflection, where we have lots of control, and can pick directions to smell the roses and choose to move towards the shore, but always the current pulls us along; and then there are the rapids, which just wooooooooosh us along with rocks and shoals, which we have to deftly get about, and if we spy a smooth area we endeavour to move towards it for a break from the struggle; 

but the fun thing is, we are not in the river alone, for it is a broad river and there are many travelling it; so we occasionally bump into one another and share experiences; sometime too we try to connect and it just doesn't work out; not going our way or the timing is not right; anyone of a multitude of reasons; 

so what is destined to be our lot; that good old Islamic saying comes to mind; "Struggle is the meaning of life. Defeat or victory is in the hands of God (the current). But struggle itself is Man's duty and should be his joy." - Aga Khan;

so dear friends, struggle on, set you eye on the polar star and mark your course; the next bend in the river is just ahead, will it bring smooth paddling or wild rapids ;-) 

Thoughts to question the Universe with!!

I wrote this post 4 years ago this month, on the 18th; that would be Nov 18th 2006 ;-) little knowing that on Jan 24th 2007 I would be in a plane over the Irish Sea, about to land in Manchester UK ;-) but I just found it again, and a lot of thoughts are going through my mind, about Destiny and where we are headed; see the next post for my thoughts; SW

Walking out my Destiny

Nov 18th 2006

The title outlines the purpose very succinctly… Walking out my destiny… taken from the title of a religious magazine I found in the bathroom this morning… Kenneth Copeland Ministries… July 2006… perhaps I should have read it earlier ;0… but walking I am doing now… my brother and I began last week, but one thing and another, he got distracted from it, and I just waited for him to get back on track… however, last night I had a bad night, and lots of dreams… always dream, never go to sleep without dreaming… most are what I call entertainment, nothing to write home about… but this morning I had one which upon waking had me thinking a mile a minute… getting into shape… ideas were coming at me from every direction… from going walking myself, to fixing up a used tread mill that I had repaired, into a gym centre, with weights, and pulleys, to making weights that would fit on my body, without encumbering it so that I couldn't move around, or work… like some of the stuff I see people in Gym Ads wearing, leg and ankle weights, definitely not what I am looking for… want something that I can wear with street clothes and it isn't noticeable that I am, aside from perhaps appearing a bit overweight…

The point to the wearing weights, over weight people can loose weight faster than lighter people because their bodies have to work harder… ergo, if I add weight, then my body has to work harder and the weight will come off faster… now I am hoping that by positioning the weight in areas that need to lose weight that too will have a beneficial affect… perhaps, perhaps not ;)

This morning, I knew that I could not get the weights ready, so I got my Sony CD player and put some batteries in it, only to find that the music, which I hadn't listened to since this time last year, while working at the church, was Christmas music ;0… then I got the camera and tripod, put 3 layers of shirts and my fav hoodie on… I met my brother as I was getting ready… he was headed back to bed, after he had a rough night, at 6:45… told him, and he said, 'I'll believe you, thousands wouldn't!!'

I headed out at 7, and walked down to the lake, thinking that I would take a few pictures, not that the weather was any good, dark and dismal… very over cast… it took me only 15 minutes to get to the lake, then I wandered around within a very constricted area, taking pics, then started back at 7:20… arriving at 8:39… took longer because I was still taking pictures ;0… really got into it hahaha… anyway, I arrived home and made some coffee from Chile, which a friend of my eldest daughter's gave me, and set about blogging… when it went frizz… I did take a pedometer that my brother had given me last week, and it registered 5449 steps, which translates into about 2.57 miles… so really not bad at as a start… but as I have discovered once started, gotta keep going… so there will be more morning walks to the lake… perhaps taking the whole morning to walk about… as for the weights and the tread mill, that will have to wait for another day… right now I have some work for money to do, packaging sample breakfast diet drinks HOL, now how is that for co-incidence… only found out when I had a peek while sorting stuff out just now… I REALLY think Some one is trying awfully hard to get through hahaha…

Of course as usual, comments and ideas gratefully received…

What Next???

Halloween is over for another year;

Hello,
Web 2 and soon to be Web 3 are around the corner, with all the other many other new apps and electronic tools and medical procedures brought to us by the new technology will change life and how we live it as drastically in the next 10-15 years as the last 30-50 years have changed life;

40 years ago the cry against technology and Space Exploration was we had to get things straightened up on our planet before we spent money on Space, but now after 40 years and counting, nothing has changed, other than we have more problems than we did in 1964-69 and we didn't get rid of poverty, war, or inequality; sure some places have benefited, like South Africa, Russia and East Germany!! but in reality, we are still a mess, with poverty and hunger in the First World that rivals that in the Third World Countries;

now we have Climate Change and the Fight to reduce CO2 emissions which threatens to stall the economic advances of the Third World, while the stronger Nations, like China, Canada, India, the USA and Russia fight any real attempt at control; and like I said, technological advances are just around the corner that will propel us into the 21st century at light speed ;-) I think it makes the book (WALDEN) on Thoreau's view of life all the more relevant as a means to balance the mental tight rope walk of life in this new age;

While I just lit three candles to see how much light they shine in my little corner display around the computer, Father Christmas and Indonesian Wood Carvings, I am reflecting on what next; last night I was up for 3-4 hours looking through the tech news; don't read the "real" news much; it never really changes except the names and locations; but the Tech news does; there is an Egyptian who is going to revolutionize Canadian telecomm industry by forcing them to compete against him and thus give consumer some real choice; a few new ways to get past the silicon chip (it was discovered in the late 1950's) and make electronics faster, more powerful and smaller; a stem cell was used to create a miniature liver; and of course last spring the creation of heart cells from stem cells; individual genome studies are available online, not sure of the safety of this, but if you know about cloud computing, their technology is akin to that (web 3 ???) soon we will all be able to have our individual genomes read and available for study as easily as we can access our credit reports; have heart disease or kidney disease, get a new one created from your skin cells, no rejection; this week we celebrate 10 years of ISS human occupation; in 10 years they will be deciding whether to extend it's life again; mean while Bigelow will be putting up Space Habitats in LEO and probably between the Earth and the Moon, with plans for a Lunar Base a couple of years down the road; by 2040, at the latest, the first persons born in Space and on another celestial body, will have celebrated their first BD; and a Martian colony is a distinct possibility by the year 2050-60;
last year we changed over here at the Hermitage to the fluorescent low energy lamps; this year our hydro has gone up, and we are planning on investing in LED lamps and motion/proximity detectors to turn off and on lights; last week we bought a LED bulb, with 1.5 watt usage, but 120 Lumen of light production, which is about twice the light as the 3 candles; it cost 9 dollars; for 15 dollars we can get a 220 Lumen bulb, 2.5 watt usage; that and the change over of the Halloween and Christmas decorations to LED and soon LED computer monitors, we hope to cut down the cost of hydro;

but having said that, I am looking at buying a 12" compound mitre saw for 315 dollars including tax for making frames for stretching canvas and framing pictures and painting, as well as other projects; (building another Walden??) all small steps forward;
















But again, WHAT'S NEXT!!??? 52 days to Chrimbo!!

Will we become a Space Faring Species in the next 150 years

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22191.0

Quote from Robotbeat

In 150 years, there are at least 20,000 people on Mars (not necessarily in one colony). How did they get there? What are they doing? Why?

Try to provide unique but very believable answers, like Jules Verne. No "technological singularity" allowed (too easy). Try to have a different scenario from other posters. Everything must be based on real physics (or reasonable extrapolations), though engineering is more flexible (extra points if the engineering is realistic, low tech can also be interesting). Ready.... Go!

my answer
I do get tired of the defeatist thinking on this and other forums; we have gone from pre Flight to Wright Brothers and Space flight in about the same time that Robotbeat is asking us to imagine how we would set up a colony on Mars; in terms of human ingenuity and will, I don't think it is all that hard to imagine that in 150 years we won't have live births on the Moon, Mars and in Space Stations dotting the inner Solar System;
what I do find hard to believe is the degree of cynicism amongst the space community; it is as if the wind had been taken out of the sails of an American Cup yacht while racing to the finish line, and the crew just gives up;
what we will be doing, what we should be doing and what we could be doing in 150 years are 3 different things; and will basically depend on whether or not, we as a race, sit back and moan about the present, or our dreamers dream big dreams and we get inspired to do the “impossible”. By impossible, I don't mean warp drive or star-gates, I mean taking on projects that push the present envelop of human progress, advancement to the next level; Moon Bases, Space Stations, Mars colonies, Asteroid mining and maneuvering, and Space Craft that don't return to a gravity well; the technology is there to do it, we just need to bring it together;
In 150 years I would hope that we had begun utilizing ISRU (In Space Resource Utilization) through mining Asteroids, and bringing them closer to the Earth / Moon and Mars Systems; the Martians and Lunarians would begin building their own civilizations, to become independent trading partners of an Earth, Moon, Mars alliance in another 100 years OR LESS; perhaps we would have large scale Space Stations at the L-points between Earth / Moon, and Mars; Terra-forming of Mars and Venus would have begun in earnest, and the first person to reach a Jovian Moon would have returned; we would no longer be building space craft in gravity wells, but in space, out of materials mined in space;
This is what I see when I look to the future, not the same old, same old that a lot of you seem to think is our future as a race; there will be a time when the last of us baby boomers die off; there will be good times again between now and then and in the future; there will be leaders of industry, science and politics, born in this century that push the envelop; and there will be people who say, why, what is the good, we have problems to solve here on Earth;
but the final point is: the easy wealth has all but been run out here on this planet; if we want to advance, we need space exploitation and exploration; whether we do or don't, the results will be our legacy to the future; that is why answering the question at the beginning of this thread is important; not that the answers are accurate, but that they bespeak hope and imagination for the future of our children; our legacy to them;

Space, will it be the Final Frontier???

What do we want from the US Civilian Space Program over the next 40 years?

I am not an American, let me be abundantly clear on that; I live in Canada and was born in Grt. Britain;
Second, this question, while pointing out the USA Space Program, is not restricted to them; I stole it from here;

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=20475.2878

as this was becoming frustrating, at the plethora of opposition to almost any options being put forward that would leverage the Human Space Flight advances in the coming 40 years, in the USA. But I suspect that, as the forum is international in scope and origin, that it reflects the emotional interest of the majority of Space Geeks in the World (Western Civilization)
In my opinion, Ross makes a valid assumption, that either we go with the slow and easy, and go no-where philosophy, or we grab the bull by the horns and push the beast back; what that means to me is utilize every available resource and intellectual advantage to put mankind into Exploration of the Inner Planets in a way that accesses resources and energy to bring us to a new level of civilization;
Human civilization has been around for approximately 90 thousand years depending on your interpretation; and it has only been the past 9 thousand that we have made substantial advances that have brought us to the point of leaving the planet; we are using 16% of our planets resources in Energy, and that is our bank account to get off planet, the easily accessible resources; (the BP oil spill is an example of going after harder to reach resources)
with that preface, how to answer the question at the top of the page;
What CAN we do in the next 40 years given the infrastructure and budgets today??

A lot, and yet not as much as we could; the infrastructure in the US is on life support, and slowly / painfully being dismantled, so that the ISS is supported, with adequate funding for R & D; the US can only find the financial and political capital to fund one and not the other, ISS or HLV;
this is their NASA civil space program, which is 0.06% of their National Budget; if the political capital and Will were available, there were would be adequate funding, but it isn't, and most likely won't be for the duration of the first half of this century; it won't be until later in the century, when persons of adequate background find their way into power and change the direction; in the meantime it is "stagnant quo" as one Congress Woman described it;
So what the Americans do in the next 40 years;
1) continue the experiment of turning to Commercial Space companies to support the ISS; supporting them and seeing that they hit their targets in regard to developing their technologies to deliver cargo and eventually crewed space vehicles; in 15 years they will be in a prime position to walk on their own; Already SpaceX has benefited from it's first test flight of the Falcon 9, but expanding it's launch manifest to beyond 2017, and that is only the beginning; if they can keep their costs down, as promised, and reliability of service, then there is hope that their other plans to develop HLV and BFR engines, with the proceeds; given their history of keeping development costs down, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that by 2030-35 they could be launching Moon Orbit space craft; I use SpaceX as an example only because they are the most visible; there are many more out there in the US (what of the rest of the world's Commercial Space companies, invisible below the horizon) who are prepared and preparing to advance robotic and human space flight; the next 40 years will see great advances by these companies, potentially leap frogging the US civil space authority, unless political interference (ie requirements to support Pork, in return for licensing) holds them back, which is not all that unlikely as the Pork dwindles in the Civil Space Arena;

2) Leveraging the existing Civil Space Infrastructure; this is a hodge podge of companies and design centers; NASA is spread out over the USA not for technological reasons, but to buy support in the government for policy decisions; it began during the cold war and has become institutionalized in government and has resulted in grid lock, which now has expanded beyond the halls of power, into the society as a whole, where political influence has made it impossible to get consensus or compromise; lines of politics are polarized and inflexible; in historical perspective, this is often a precursor to revolution; personal attacks are often resorted to in place of logical argument; conspiracy theories are taken as fact, and the most blatant hyperbola is given credence over reality; ignorance reigns supreme and education is suspect as elitism;
so in a society such as this, (which again, while at the extreme edge, is still representative of many countries in the west) what is likely to happen with the existing Civil Space Infrastructure in the next 40 years;
in the next 15 years:
the Constellation program as it existed in 2009 is dead and the Shuttle program is to be torn down by hook or by crook; the brain trust that is NASA and it's various centers will be disbanded, to go where ever they can survive; and the ISS supported as long as it is capable of staying aloft, supported by Commercial Space Industries, until it becomes top heavy in upkeep costs; R & D will be performed as much as it can be afforded, and some progress will be seen, but it will not be developed into an exploration infrastructure, which is what is needed for a robust space program; it is a program on life support; the grand plans from FY2011, will be defunded in 2016, as too expensive, and other government priorities will take center stage; the progress of Commercial Space will be touted as the new way to explore and by default Exploration will be taken over by them in the short term; ISS will be the show piece to say that the US is still in space;
in the remaining 25 years:
Deep Breath, this is a hard prediction, as it depends on whether or not Civil Space in the US exists in 15 years as anything more than an R & D resource; doing one off demonstration projects, like propellant depot testing, not actual propellant depot infrastructure in LEO, L-points or LLO; the technology that is found to work, will be handed off to Commercial Space for a fraction of it's costs and left to them to decided what to cherry pick to use in their Space Exploration Architectures;
I make that Architectures, plural because I believe that once the economic reason for being is found amongst the commercial entities, there will be competition like the days of the opening up of North America; the next 40 years may see the seed of that exploration;
Commercial Space will have the edge, and will be in position to develop the Human Space Flight exploration flexible path; not the one we know of today, from the Augustine Committee; but one developed from their capabilities, proven over the next 15 years;
1) there will be a HLV built when it is realized that one is required for economical launching of MASS / VOLUME pieces of Space Modules, Space Infrastructure, and Space Craft; ROI will be seen as needing to be amortized over decades and not years for the rest of the century; 50 years instead of 5 to 10; their will be several variants of HLV and possibly a SHLV towards the end of the 40 years
1b) After the 15-20 years of The Gap, new Space Craft will be created from plans that are now gathering dust; Tugs for moving objects in Space will be developed and utilized to move Space Station Modules from LEO to HEO, and beyond; Lunar Landers will be reusable, lasting 5-10 years; a variety of Earth Return Vehicles will have come into existence; some will be capsules, while there will also be Space Planes, capable of Sub-orbital flight and insertion into LEO; it will start small, but by 2050, it is probable that a commercial case may be made for people and cargo will ride to space in freighters and taxis, returning on a semi regular basis;
2) A new era of Space Station development will begin in the next 15 years, as test articles are flown to the ISS, and later to other points around the planet; between 2025 and 2050, there will be several new ISS and Commercial Space Stations positioned around the Inner Planets; other Nations will have their own space stations positioned in LEO, but with the lead time the US has in this field, it will be the US Commercial Space Stations that will be first to BEO;
3) light weight modules will be developed from the modules that make up the space stations, and become the core infrastructure on the Lunar surface, and the Martian Moons; there may be an attempt late, about 2045, to land one on an Asteroid, as a precursor mission to asteroid mining;
4) we WON'T have landed a person on Mars by 2050; while NASA has it in it's FY2011 budget as THE GOAL of exploration, unless there is a compelling reason, such as a Space Race to get a Man to Mars, there is no societal, political, or technological reason or will, to do it; we will put robotic outposts on the surface and repeat the Rovers and Orbital Observatories or Stations (similar to ones around Earth, but for a short duration stay, about the last 5 years of the 40 year term); it will be in the latter half of the century that humans set up a colony on Mars, after testing out the infrastructure on the Moon, around Mars and in Space between the inner planets;
5) we will have a human go to an Asteroid, as a demonstration mission, and example of a Mars type mission in duration, by 2030 and repeated 2-3 times; this after several more Engineering missions similar to the one that the Japanese just completed; Robotic In Space Resource Utilization mission will be attempted to an Asteroid by 2045-50; but in the end, it will be manned ISRU, in the second half of the century that will be common place, simply because repair of machinery that if disabled, will cost millions of dollars to the people who own the rights;
6) which brings up an interesting problem, who will own the rights to the resources of the Solar System; if an unlimited source of energy in space were discovered, with the potential to make every man, woman and child, free of the economic system we now exist under, would it be made available or would the finder/producer, be in a position to determine market terms; this is no idle question; today we have mining companies extracting minerals in places as varied as Alberta Tar Sands, and Nigerian Oil Fields, where there, the ability of the people who live on the land to gain any of the wealth created is proportional to the greed of the people who govern them; in the next 40 years it is possible that some form of Space Resource Agreement will have to be struck with the worlds governments, otherwise there will be civil unrest like has not been seen since the Dark Ages;

How to feed all those poor people

in India, Haiti, Ryerson, York U., Toronto U, Trent U. Seneca College, Centennial College, Durham College;
I am of course being facetious, but the Toronto Star, on Monday, March 8th in a column in the Greater Toronto section entitled The OSAP Diet, university students blog about learning to feed themselves on just $7.50 a day on page GT3 written by Louise Brown, their education reporter. Now I don't have a serious problem with this, I have known students who struggled for years getting through their degree courses, only to be left with huge debts to pay back; How ever there are many students on low income budgets existing on Ontario Student Assistant Plan, a loan program that assists low income students to get an education; they are ALLOWED a maximum of ONLY $12, 540 dollars a year for living expenses whle away from home; that doesn't sound like a lot compared to the Ontario's poverty level of $15,200 for rural areas and $22,171 in larger cities; but wait, what about the poor single sods on Ontario Works, who are expected to live on $221 basic needs and maximum $364 shelter allowance per month; that translates to $2652 basic needs per year and $7.27 per day. That is to cover BOTH food, clothing, transportation, hair cuts, and any other little luxury that may be desired; where do they get off saying that these students are so hard done by; I have to pay $400 a month for a two room apartment, which includes my internet, kitchen faciities and laundry; a difference of $36 which has to come out of my food allowance; thus in reality leaving me in a deficit situation; so what do I cut out, food, clothing, transportation, haircuts, or all of above; and before anyone complains that I am writing on a computer, so can't be doing that badly, this laptop as described below in another post, is 11 years old and not up to snuff; it was given to me Christmas 2008; my food budget is on average 50 dollars a month; that is just under 2 dollars a day; yet I am able to buy on sale, bulk items like meat, soya margerine, and potatoes; it took me 3 months, but I saved enough to buy a 7cu ft chest freezer; it took me 2 months to save up the money to expand the memory in my work tower, which is 6 years old, and to get a visa gift card to allow me to purchase the time on Cafe Press; this is the reality of my life on Ontario Works (Benefits, or Social Assisatance for those not in Ontario); but I don't go complaining to the papers; what good is it going to do, NONE!! the government and the people don't want to hear about it; if the people (not my worker, she is a gem) at OW head office heard I was complaining it may opem me up for investigation.

this week,
breakfast is 1 cup of rolled oats, with milk and sugar;
Lunch is a sandwich, usually peanut butter OR jam;
my dinners consist of a concotion (I failed to see it being equivalent of a recipe)
1 lb boiled and drained hamburger
1 box of macaroni and cheese dinner
2 cups of mixed vegetables
a squirt of tomato ketchup;
divided up and put in the freezer, I nuke it, and it will do me 4 meals at least; I have an apple for dessert, and lots of coffee or home made gingerbeer
oh yes, I make my own pop; take 1 lb of ginger root, 98cents, cut up, and boiled in a stock pot, add 2 cups of white sugar, and a bit of lemon juice, and voila you have a drink fit for a Cratchit ;0
if I really want to splurge, I have recipe for a steamed pudding, that is cheap and easy to make, and can last a week in the fridge, but better put in the freezer, as it tends to grow mold if left too long; it can be made for desert, or amended with meat, to make a dinner; bacon, hamburger, ham, or sausage/hot dogs works;
other than this, I make a lot of soups from the seconds section of the vegetale/fruit of No Frills; that's where I also get my potatoes and sometimes my ginger root; 3lbs for $1.49 for the ginger root; I buy bulk flour, the 10kg bags of All Purpose No Name; it usually lasts me 2-3 months, depending on if I am making crepes for breakfast; and the syrup, no store bought syrup; I take 2 cups of brown sugar, 2 cups of white sugar, and sometimes a cup of cider powder mix, and boil it down, put it in a wine bottle to keep ;) makes for interesting conversation at breakfast if someone is about; if I don't have the cider mix, I either make it plain or add a flavouring, almond extract, or vanilla extract; I am sure there are other things that can be done, if one puts some thought to it; like boil the water before hand in cinamon, cloves, nutmeg, or ginger or a mix of them all;
last year I found some trees along a nearby road, that were crab apple trees, and I took a couple of grocery bags full, and made some jam preserve; didn't quite turn out right, my first try, but it also serves as a decent syrup; there are ways to survive on limited income, well, if a person takes the time and puts their mind to it; we have wild grape growing around the city, and if one knows how, the leaves can be used as part of a dinner, by stuffing them; they actually taste not to bad raw either; but if your going to try that, MAKE SURE YOU ASK IF IT IS GRAPE!!! I come from the country and know the different leaves and fruit; so for me it is just seeing what used to be common place;
A person is poor, when they are wanting something that they cannot have; I don't think of myself as poor, because there is nothing that I can't have, if I am willing to wait for it; if a person can't wait, and MUST have it NOW, then they are truly poor, no matter how much money they may have, because they will never be satisfied or content;